Experts see stability returning, with growth hinging on Bank of Canada's June decision

By Candyd Mendoza

20 May 2025

With the summer market approaching, Canada’s housing sector is showing signs of cautious momentum after a sluggish spring.

Market watchers point to subdued activity, persistent affordability concerns, and an uncertain economic outlook driven by trade tensions and interest rate speculation as key factors shaping the landscape.

“Spring has really been off to quite a slow start right across the board,” says Anne-Elise Allegritti, research expert at Royal LePage. “That’s due to just a lack of confidence generally in the economy in the country due to trade relations with the United States. That’s really putting a huge damper on Canadians’ mentality.”

The Canada Real Estate Association’s latest data shows home sales dropped nearly 10% year over year in April. However, once adjusted for seasonal variation, sales levels were stable compared to March.

“Things haven’t really picked up, but they’re not necessarily getting worse. So this could be the turning point,” Allegritti noted. “I think what we’re seeing (based on April’s report) is that buyers don’t feel a real sense of urgency. I’ll be curious to see what May data looks like.”

Rate cut hopes may stir activity

Much now hinges on the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate decision scheduled for June 4. While the central bank has signaled a cautious stance in recent months, some economists believe deteriorating economic indicators could prompt a cut.

“Mitigating the effects of the trade war, that’s still front of mind for the Bank of Canada. So that would make them more likely to cut,” said Clay Jarvis, a mortgage expert with NerdWallet. “Unemployment is rising right now. That might make them want to cut. There aren’t really too many positive signals in the economy that would have the Bank of Canada holding off.”

If a rate cut materializes, it could lead to a drop in mortgage rates, improving affordability for would-be buyers and possibly prompting an uptick in demand. However, any increase in activity would likely vary widely by region and housing type.

The country’s most expensive urban markets, notably Toronto and Vancouver, have seen notable cooling, while more affordable regions are gaining traction.

“Ten years ago, it was Toronto and Vancouver were hot and everyone else was not, and now it’s the opposite,” said Christopher Cathcart, referencing strong activity in the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast. “It’s places that are more affordable where you can get a house in the $300,000 and $400,000 range that are super hot.”

In the Greater Toronto Area, the slowdown is particularly pronounced for condominiums. A surplus in inventory — combined with a pullback from investors — has weighed heavily on prices.

Read next: From bidding wars to bargaining: Toronto home sellers slash prices

“There’s a lot of condos in the market, which is driving prices way down because investors aren’t purchasing,” said Stephen Moore, a sales representative at Century 21. “The buyer pool has dried up… and now the investors are not coming.

“The condo prices are already inflated. You just need to take the loss if you’re selling and move on. It’s a tricky market for condos.”

Buyers weigh opportunity against risk

While pockets of affordability exist, especially for detached homes in less saturated markets, economists advise buyers to tread carefully given economic volatility.

“You really have to look at your current conditions, your current financial conditions and it having some sort of semblance of job security,” said Jarvis. “If you have that, the market is actually pretty inviting right now.”

With a Bank of Canada rate decision looming and macroeconomic indicators shifting rapidly, the path forward for Canada’s housing market remains highly uncertain, but for some qualified buyers, opportunities may emerge in the months ahead.

Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by checking back with us often.

OTTAWA — Canada's new housing minister says he didn't have the tools he needed to address housing affordability issues when he was mayor of Vancouver — the country's most expensive housing market.

Craig Lord, The Canadian PressMay 14, 2025 5:43 PM

Gregor Robertson, minister of housing and infrastructure and minister responsible for Pacific Economic Development Canada, takes part in the cabinet swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Tuesday, May 13, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

OTTAWA — Canada's new housing minister says he didn't have the tools he needed to address housing affordability issues when he was mayor of Vancouver — the country's most expensive housing market.

Gregor Robertson faced questions about his record on housing affordability from reporters ahead of his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, less than 24 hours after he was sworn in as Prime Minister Mark Carney's housing minister.

"I'm here to leverage my history as a mayor. I know what works on the ground," Robertson said.

Data from Greater Vancouver Realtors shows that the price of a benchmark home in the region more than doubled during Robertson's time as mayor from December 2008 to November 2018.

Robertson argued that many cities across Canada saw similar surges during that period.

Over the same period, the national benchmark home price rose by 78 per cent, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows.

Robertson also said he "wasn't getting the help" he needed from higher levels of government when he was mayor. He said the Liberals' housing accelerator fund — cash set aside for cities that lower barriers to home construction — is one program he thinks will help to address affordability concerns.

The Canadian Press asked Robertson if he felt home prices need to go down to restore affordability.

"No, I think that we need to deliver more supply, make sure the market is stable," he said.

When asked the same question Tuesday, Carney said that while there are things Ottawa can do now to help with affordability — such as cutting the GST on new builds for first-time buyers — the long-term solution is to boost supply.

He said that Robertson's experience will help the federal government understand better how to get municipalities to cut costs and regulation impeding construction.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on Tuesday attacked Carney's decision to appoint Robertson to the housing file.

"If this is the new blood that Mr. Carney is bringing into the cabinet, then sadly for Canadians, nothing is going to change," he said.

Robertson said that there's a "huge shortage" of affordable housing in Canada due to a lack of government efforts to bring those units to market.

During the campaign, the Liberals pledged to create a new agency to develop affordable housing and promised funding to streamline homebuilding through technologies such as prefabricated homes.

The Liberals also pledged to get cities to cut development charges in half and to restore immigration rates to "sustainable" levels.

While Robertson said the federal government's goal of doubling the pace of home construction is "very ambitious" and will take years to "scale up," he struck a note of optimism.

"We've got a lot of work to do on this and it doesn't happen overnight. Housing is a slow-moving creature and we've got to do everything we can to speed it up," he said.

B.C. Premier David Eby was asked whether he agrees with Robertson's comments at an availability in Victoria on Wednesday.

Eby did not speak to home prices specifically but said the province's focus is on lowering the cost of housing, getting more rental housing built and driving down rents, in part by reducing the cost of land for development.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 14, 2025.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press

Prime minister pledges to protect Canada and tackle the nation's housing shortage

By Candyd Mendoza

29 Apr. 2025

In one of Canada’s most consequential elections in decades, Mark Carney secured a historic victory.

However, it remains uncertain whether his Liberal Party will reach the 172-seat threshold needed for an outright majority, with full results expected by early Tuesday morning.

The election was widely seen as a referendum on leadership strength against external threats, particularly President Donald Trump, who inflamed tensions by threatening to annex Canada and imposing heavy tariffs.

"As I've been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country," Carney told supporters Monday night. "These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never... ever happen."

Carney’s firm stance quickly drew praise on the international stage.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, wrote on X: "I look forward to working closely together, both bilaterally and within the G7. We'll defend our shared democratic values, promote multilateralism, and champion free and fair trade."

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese echoed the sentiment, posting: "In a time of global uncertainty, I look forward to continuing to work with you to build on the enduring friendship between our nations, in the shared interests of all our citizens."

Carney’s path to leadership

Carney, 60, brought extensive financial experience to his political debut. A former investment banker, he previously served as the head of the Bank of England during Brexit and the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite never holding elected office before, Carney was named leader of the Liberal Party in March. His background in finance and calm demeanor helped persuade voters he was the candidate best equipped to counter Trump’s unpredictable policies.

Carney defeated Pierre Poilievre, the 45-year-old leader of the Conservative Party. Poilievre had led the polls for more than a year, at one point with a 27-point advantage over the Liberals. His momentum shifted after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January, giving the Liberals a much-needed boost.

The turning point came as Trump intensified his attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty, culminating in a provocative social media post on election day suggesting Canada could become the 51st US state.

Poilievre’s campaign, characterized by Trump-style rhetoric, including a "Canada First" slogan, promises of tighter borders, smaller government, and opposition to "wokeness," resonated early on. However, his perceived alignment with Trump ultimately damaged his standing with voters.

This loss marks the Conservative Party’s third consecutive defeat in federal elections, leading analysts to predict internal debates over its future direction.

Carney’s promises

In addition to foreign policy concerns, housing emerged as a pivotal issue throughout the campaign. Experts believe no single party has a full solution, but acknowledge progress is being made.

"I don’t think any of the parties are going to have enough to solve the crisis, but they are moving in the right direction," said Mike Moffatt, senior director of policy and innovation at the Smart Prosperity Institute.

The Liberal Party’s housing platform includes a plan to double the pace of homebuilding, targeting 500,000 units per year over the next decade. A new crown corporation, Build Canada Homes, would lead this effort by directly engaging the federal government in home construction.

Read next: Housing policies a key issue for Canadian voters ahead of election

"Well, the federal government’s been doing this a little bit since 2017. Carney is suggesting he take it further and actually act as a developer and create a new crown corporation," Moffatt explained.

However, Moffatt cautioned that while the plan is ambitious, scepticism is warranted. "It’s an ambitious plan, but I think a little bit of skepticism is warranted because it is so ambitious, creating a new crown corporation out of scratch to be a developer, it’s going to be a challenge for the government to pull off," he said.

He also highlighted structural obstacles: the federal government has no direct control over municipalities, limiting its ability to mandate lower development charges, which Moffatt said all parties agree are “far too high.”

"What they can do is, create a bunch of incentive programs and try to incentivize municipalities to do the right thing, but they can’t force them to do it, and there’s always challenges around coming up with agreements and actually making sure that those municipalities live up to their word," he noted.

Central bank announces pause as trade tensions rumble on

By Fergal McAlinden
16 Apr. 2025

The Bank of Canada has hit pause on its rate-cutting path, keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged in April as it weighs up the likely impact to the Canadian economy of US president Donald Trump’s global trade war.  

The central bank said on Wednesday morning it was leaving its overnight rate at the current level of 2.75%, opting against bringing borrowing costs lower again amid lingering concern about the possible effect of Trump’s tariffs on Canadian inflation.  

Money market odds of a rate cut jumped yesterday after the consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly dipped to 2.3% despite economists’ projections that it would remain unchanged from February at 2.6%.  

But analysts still saw a roughly 50% chance that the Bank would leave rates untouched, with its prior decision (a 25-basis-point cut in March) seeing central bank officials emphasize the need to balance the potential negative economic impact of Trump’s policies – which include steep levies against Canadian steel and aluminum – with upside risks to inflation.  

The move marks the first time in nearly a year that the Bank has left rates unchanged, having introduced seven consecutive cuts since last April and moved that benchmark rate from a two-decade high of 5%.  

Leading banks are likely to leave their own prime rates unchanged – and the Bank’s path ahead on rates for the remainder of 2025 is also unclear. Trump’s tariff war could see prices rise sharply while a potential recession is also looming into view, with the central bank’s first-quarter business outlook survey indicating that around 32% of surveyed firms now expect the economy to see a downturn, up sharply from 15% in Q4.  

Top lenders including TD, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) expect the benchmark rate to land at 2.25% by the end of the year, while Bank of Montreal (BMO) and National Bank see that rate slipping to 2% before January.  

Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by following us closely on our blog and socials.

Housing supply crisis shows little sign of improving

By Fergal McAlinden
15 Apr. 2025

Housing starts surprisingly fell by 3.3% last month in Canada compared with February as a sluggish pace of national homebuilding this year continued.

Data from national housing agency Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) showed on Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of housing starts slid to 214,155 units last month, down from a revised 221,405 units in February.

That marked an unexpected dip, well below economists’ projections of 242,500 starts for the month, and the second monthly decline after starts also dived in February.

In centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, actual housing starts came in at 14,924 units compared with 17,052 the same time last year, while the monthly SAAR for those centres fell by 2.8% (from 209,093 units to 203,285).

The pace of housing starts in Montreal surged in March, jumping by 138% year over year thanks mainly to an increase in multi-unit starts. Still, that trend was offset by significant declines in Vancouver and Toronto, which saw starts fall by 59% and 65% respectively.

Multi-unit starts in Vancouver were well down, while multi-unit and single-detached starts fell in Toronto.

The pace of home construction shows little sign of rising to the levels needed to ease Canada’s housing crisis, with national supply levels still millions short of what CMHC says is required to make housing affordable for all Canadians by 2030.

Actual housing starts ticked slightly upwards in 2024 compared with the previous year, the housing agency said in January, increasing by 2% in centres with a population of 10,000 or more.

Overall unit starts came in at 227,697 for the year compared with 223,513 in 2023, with the total for all areas in Canada also increasing by 2% year over year to 245,120 units.

Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by signing up for our free daily newsletter here.

Consumer price index falls in March, boosting prospects of another rate reduction

By Fergal McAlinder
15 Apr. 2025

Canada’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in March, sliding to 2.3% and boosting odds of a central bank interest rate cut tomorrow (April 16).

Statistics Canada said on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) slowed compared with the same time last year, down from 2.6% in February and lower than economists polled by Reuters, who forecasted no change in March, had expected.

That decline was spurred mainly by lower costs at the pump and a decline in travel tours prices, although core measures of inflation – the Bank of Canada’s preferred gauge – remained elevated.

Mortgage interest costs were a significant contributor to overall price growth, rising by 7.9% on a year-over-year basis, while rent prices (5.1%) were also up. Food purchased from restaurants, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, and property taxes and other special charges jumped compared with the same time in 2024.

Money markets priced odds of a central bank rate cut tomorrow at approximately 50-50 in the wake of the latest inflation data, having previously seen chances of a reduction at just higher than a third.

Following its last benchmark rate decision, a 25-basis-point cut in March, the central bank emphasized the importance of keeping inflation under control as US president Donald Trump’s trade war threatens to drive prices upwards.

But Tuesday’s inflation reading opens the door to another cut tomorrow, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) economist Katherine Judge.

“The easing in price pressures is consistent with the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at tomorrow’s meeting,” she wrote, “with the downside risks to growth from the trade war outweighing any upside to inflation from tariffs in our view.”

Make sure to get all the latest news to your inbox on Canada’s mortgage and housing markets by returning to our blog posts often.

Moving in together, whether as roommates, partners, or friends, is an exciting milestone. But what happens if things don’t go as planned? A co-habitation agreement can help clarify responsibilities and expectations before issues arise.

What is a Co-Habitation Agreement?

A co-habitation agreement is a legal document that outlines financial and legal obligations when people share a home. It covers aspects like:

• Rent and utility payments

• Property ownership and division

• What happens if someone moves out

• Conflict resolution procedures

Why It’s a Smart Move

• Avoids misunderstandings: Clearly defining responsibilities reduces potential conflicts.

• Protects your financial interests: Ensures no one is left unfairly covering extra expenses.

• Provides legal clarity: If disagreements arise, the agreement acts as a guide for resolution.

Learn More

Interested in setting up a co-habitation agreement? Visit https://yourmagnoliagroup.ca/cohabitationagreement for more details on how to create one that suits your needs.

Final Thoughts

While no one likes to think about worst-case scenarios, preparing for them is the best way to protect yourself and your home. A co-habitation agreement ensures that everyone involved understands their rights and responsibilities, making for a more harmonious living arrangement.

Many homebuyers don’t realize the crucial role a real estate lawyer plays in closing a deal. While they may not be involved in your home search, their expertise ensures a smooth and legally sound transaction.

What Does a Real Estate Lawyer Do?

1. Title Search & Ownership Verification A lawyer ensures the property title is clear of liens, disputes, or legal claims that could impact your ownership.

2. Contract Review They carefully examine all legal documents, including the Agreement of Purchase and Sale, to ensure your interests are protected.

3. Mortgage & Financial Document Review They help ensure the terms of your mortgage align with what you agreed upon with your lender.

4. Closing the Deal Your lawyer handles the final exchange of funds, registers the property under your name, and ensures all legal requirements are met before handing you the keys.

Why You Need a Lawyer for Closing

A home purchase is one of the biggest financial transactions you’ll ever make. Having a legal expert ensures that everything is properly documented, protecting you from potential disputes down the road.

Bottom Line

Think of your real estate lawyer as the final safeguard in your home-buying journey—making sure you walk away with a secure investment.

When buying a home, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement—imagining where your furniture will go, planning your first gathering, or picturing lazy Sunday mornings in your dream space. But before you pick out paint swatches, there’s one crucial step you should never skip: the home inspection.

Why a Home Inspection is Essential

A home inspection is like a health check-up for a house. It gives you a clear understanding of the home’s condition, highlighting any existing or potential issues. This step is invaluable whether you’re buying a brand-new build or a charming century home.

Uncovering Hidden Issues

Even a home that looks picture-perfect can have underlying problems. Structural concerns, plumbing leaks, outdated electrical systems, or hidden mold can be costly surprises down the road. A thorough inspection ensures you’re aware of these issues before you sign on the dotted line.

Negotiation Power

Knowledge is power. If an inspection reveals necessary repairs, you may have the leverage to negotiate a lower price or request that the seller address these issues before closing. This can save you thousands and prevent post-move-in regrets.

Peace of Mind

At the end of the day, an inspection reassures you that you’re making a sound investment. It eliminates guesswork and helps you make informed decisions about your future home.

How to Handle Inspection Issues

If problems arise, don’t panic! Here’s what to do:

• Consult your REALTOR®: They can help you navigate the findings and decide on the best course of action.

• Request repairs or credits: Some issues can be addressed before closing, or you can negotiate a price adjustment.

• Assess deal-breakers: Some problems, like foundation issues or major roof damage, may require reconsideration of the purchase.

Final Thought

No home is perfect, but an inspection ensures you know exactly what you’re walking into. Whether you’re buying a fixer-upper or a modern masterpiece, this step is key to protecting your investment.

Hey, Waterloo Region! Ready to shake off the winter blues and dive into some springtime fun? April is bursting with events that'll have you crafting, laughing, and maybe even doing a little jig. Here's the lowdown:

1. ScrapFest in Kitchener 2025 | April 11–12

Calling all scrapbookers, cardmakers, and mixed media mavens! ScrapFest is rolling into The Aud for two days of paper crafting paradise. With a 28-hour crop session (yes, you read that right), over 25 exhibitors, and workshops led by Canadian crafting royalty, it's the ultimate creative escape. ​Explore Waterloo+1Explore Waterloo+1Bandsintown+3Explore Waterloo+3StayHappening+3

2. Steve-O Live in Kitchener | April 5

Brace yourselves—Steve-O is bringing his wild antics to Apollo Cinema. Known for his outrageous stunts and comedic flair, this is one show that's sure to be unforgettable. Tickets are flying faster than a daredevil in a rocket, so grab yours pronto! ​StayHappening+2AllEvents+2HappeningNext+2

3. Elmira Maple Syrup Festival | April 5

Sweet tooth alert! The world's largest one-day maple syrup festival is happening just a short stack away in Elmira. Indulge in all things maple, enjoy live entertainment, and celebrate this sticky Canadian staple. ​Explore Waterloo+4StayHappening+4Explore Waterloo+4Explore Waterloo

4. Cambridge Wedding Expo Spring 2025 | April 6

Tying the knot or know someone who is? Tapestry Hall is hosting the Cambridge Wedding Expo, featuring top wedding professionals ready to make your big day a dream come true. From dresses to décor, find it all under one elegant roof. ​AllEvents+1StayHappening+1

5. April Wine in Kitchener | April 24

Rock out with Canadian legends April Wine as they take the stage at The Aud. With decades of hits, they're sure to get you singing along and reminiscing. Don't miss this blast from the past! ​Eventbrite+12HappeningNext+12Explore Waterloo+12Explore Waterloo

6. Kitchener Psychic & Crystal Fair | April 25

Curious about what the future holds? Bingemans is hosting a mystical gathering of psychics, mediums, and crystal vendors. Whether you're seeking guidance or just a gorgeous gem, this fair has you covered. ​AllEvents+1StayHappening+1

7. KW Pet Expo 2025 | April 26

Pet lovers, rejoice! The Kitchener Memorial Auditorium Complex is going to the dogs... and cats, birds, and more. Discover the latest in pet products, enjoy live demonstrations, and maybe even adopt a new furry friend. ​AllEvents+2HappeningNext+2StayHappening+2

8. Strong Towns Local Conversation | April 7

Passionate about urban planning and community development? Join the conversation in downtown Kitchener to discuss ways to make our region even stronger. It's grassroots, it's engaging, and your voice matters. ​

9. Easter Brunch Buffet | April 20

Hop over to Aqua Lounge & Restaurant at the Crowne Plaza Kitchener-Waterloo for a delectable Easter brunch. Gather with family and friends to celebrate the season with a feast fit for a bunny. ​StayHappening+4HappeningNext+4AllEvents+4

10. "The Full Monty" at St. Jacobs Country Playhouse | April 9–27

Get ready for laughs and heartfelt moments as this hit musical takes the stage. Follow the journey of six unemployed steelworkers who come up with a bold way to make some cash. It's cheeky, it's charming, and it's a must-see. ​

Mark your calendars and get ready to make some memories this April. Whether you're into crafts, comedy, or community chats, Waterloo Region has something special just for you. See you out there!

Luxury real estate is more than just high-end properties—it’s about an unparalleled experience, meticulous attention to detail, and the highest level of service. That’s exactly what we deliver with our newest brand, Magnolia Group Realty - Luxury Collection.

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Our team specializes in luxury properties, ensuring that your buying or selling experience is seamless and sophisticated.

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Our clients receive concierge-level service throughout their entire real estate journey—because luxury is about the experience as much as the home itself.

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Stay up-to-date on the latest luxury listings, market insights, and stunning homes by following us on social media. Whether you’re buying or selling a luxury property, we’re here to provide expertise and elevate your experience.

Are you ready to step into the luxury real estate market? Contact us today to learn how Magnolia Group Realty - Luxury Collection can help you achieve your real estate goals.

Selling a condo in a shifting market can feel like an uphill battle, but with the right strategy and expert guidance, you can still achieve a successful sale. At Magnolia Group Realty, we specialize in navigating complex real estate markets, and we’re here to share some key strategies for selling your condo in today’s market.

1. Price It Right from the Start Overpricing can scare away potential buyers. In a competitive market, a well-priced condo attracts more interest and can lead to a faster sale. Our team provides expert pricing strategies tailored to the latest market trends.

2. Stage to Impress Staging can make a significant difference! A clean, decluttered, and well-styled condo will stand out in listing photos and showings. We offer expert staging advice to highlight your home’s best features.

3. Market Like a Pro Gone are the days of just putting up a ‘For Sale’ sign! We leverage professional photography, virtual tours, targeted social media marketing, and MLS® exposure to reach the right buyers.

4. Work with the Right REALTOR® Magnolia Group Realty has a deep understanding of the Waterloo Region condo market, and our expert team knows how to navigate the challenges of selling in this environment. We’ll help you maximize your condo’s value and get it sold efficiently.

If you’re thinking about selling your condo, reach out to us today for a consultation! Let’s get your property SOLD.