Canada’s Housing Starts: A Blip, a Trend, and What It Means for Buyers & Sellers
Canada’s homebuilding engine tapped the brakes in August—but don’t confuse a single month’s dip with a stall.
The quick stats: Housing starts fell 16% month-over-month to ~245,800 units in August. Yet the six-month moving average climbed 1.6% to ~267,300, which is the better gauge of momentum. In plain English: supply is still coming—just not in a straight line. email.mpamag.com
What’s holding things up? Rentals. Elevated market rents, paired with government financing and tax support, continue to prop up purpose-built rental construction. That’s important for affordability and for overall housing supply, even if ownership-side projects take longer to pencil. email.mpamag.com
Permits look steady. TD Economics expects a “healthy starts” trend to persist near-term, though 2026 could moderate as population growth eases and rents cool. Translation: 2025 still has legs; 2026 may be more level. email.mpamag.com
Policy tailwind: Ottawa’s Build Canada Homes plan includes using public lands for factory-built housing (first sites in Toronto, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton)—~4,000 homes to start, and capacity up to 45,000. If approvals and logistics stay on track, that’s real, scalable supply. email.mpamag.com
Regionally: August softness was broad-based—Ontario and Atlantic Canada led the declines, multi-family cooled after a sizzling July, and Manitoba bucked the trend with a gain. Month to month can be noisy; the six-month trend is still constructive. email.mpamag.com
What this means for you (Waterloo Region & Wellington County lens)
Buyers: More rental product helps pressure overall vacancy up over time—and that can stabilize rents while the resale market finds its footing. If you’ve been waiting for the “right” moment, focus less on timing the market and more on securing the right home with the right mortgage.
Sellers: Inventory remains patchy by neighbourhood and price band. The best-presented, well-priced homes still move—especially with smart marketing and data-driven strategy.
Investors: Rental fundamentals are still the strongest pillar. Underwrite conservatively (realistic rents, proper maintenance caps) and make sure your financing structure matches your plan.
Want a hyper-local read on your street or building? Let’s talk.
Sources: CMHC, TD Economics, Canadian Mortgage Professional reporting, Sept. 18, 2025.