Ontario premier says Canadian officials doing 'everything they can' to convince US to drop Canada tariffs

By Fergal McAlinden

03 Feb. 2025

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said Donald Trump has agreed to pause 25% tariffs on her country for a month, while Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is scheduled to speak with the US president for the second time today at 3:00 p.m. ET.  

Sheinbaum said she had had a “good conversation” with Trump on Monday morning, resulting in a delay to the massive levies announced by the White House that were scheduled to come into effect tomorrow (February 4). 

Trump had accused Sheinbaum’s government of entering an “intolerable alliance” with Mexican crime gangs, triggering a sharp rebuke from Mexico’s president – but she said today she has reached a number of agreements with Trump including the dispatchment of 10,000 Mexican national guard members to the border to clamp down on drug trafficking.  

The news has sparked speculation that Trudeau will call for a similar delay to Trump’s tariffs on Canada, which are also set to take effect tomorrow. On Saturday, Trump announced 25% levies on all Canadian imports to the US except energy, which was charged at 10%.  

Trudeau responded with countermeasures on US products entering Canada, introducing 25% tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American imports to the country.  

The trade spat has roiled markets and raised fears of a recession, with National Bank of Canada arguing the crisis could call for an emergency oversized rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the weeks ahead.  

Trudeau spoke with Trump this morning, and Ontario premier Doug Ford said he hopes the US president will follow his reversal on Mexico with a similar decision on Canadian tariffs.  

“We’re their number one customer. We’re their number one export destination,” Ford said on Monday, indicating Canadian officials were doing “everything they can” to reach an agreement with the US.  

“We’re working governor to premier, premier to senator and congresspeople, and all premiers are doing it. They’re reaching out to their counterparts,” he said. “And we’re doing our job. And I know the prime minister is doing his job by contacting President Trump today and later this afternoon.  

“That decision President Trump has made is so, so misguided. He underestimates the power and the will and the fortitude of Canadians. We’re their closest trading partner and ally.”  

Canada enters a new reality this week after huge US levies on Canadian imports

By Fergal McAlinden

03 Feb. 2025

It’s been the single biggest imponderable looming over the Canadian economy in early 2025 – and US tariffs became a reality on Saturday when Donald Trump introduced massive charges on Canadian goods crossing the border southwards.

That action, which includes 25% levies on all Canadian imports excluding energy – which was tariffed at 10% – has cast huge uncertainty over Canada’s economic outlook and sparked fears of a potential hammer blow to the loonie.

Its effect on Canada’s housing market remains to be seen. Last week, Bank of Montreal (BMO) chief economist Doug Porter (pictured top) told Canadian Mortgage Professional that the Bank of Canada would likely slash interest rates further if US tariffs began to weigh down heavily on the Canadian economy, meaning potential borrowing costs could end up even lower than first anticipated for the year ahead.

But the severity of Trump’s measures – and Canada’s response, which included retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of American goods – leaves plenty in doubt about whether the housing market will suffer from wider economic strain.

Intensity of potential trade war remains a key unknown

Speaking days before Trump confirmed the tariffs would go ahead, Porter suggested a “light trade war” could boost the Canadian housing market, but emphasized it would probably be damaged by anything more intense.

“Even though the Bank is a bit mixed [on being prepared to cut rates], I think at the end of the day it means lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case,” Porter told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “And of course, the housing market is the most interest rate-sensitive sector of the economy. In general, I don’t think a trade war would have much direct impact.

“What I would be worried about is if the Canadian economy were really wounded badly by a trade war, then that could actually work its way back into the housing market and clip demand as well. The threat to the housing market would be the indirect effect of a weaker economy.”

After the tariffs were announced, Porter said the trade war would likely reduce Canada’s GDP growth by around two percentage points and could slide the economy into a “modest recession” if those measures remained in place for a year.

The Bank of Canada is also likely to slash its policy rate by a quarter-point at every meeting until October, he said, bringing it down from its current level to 1.5%.

US tariffs and countermeasures are likely to see the cost of materials for home construction jump on both sides of the border. But Porter said that wouldn’t necessarily harm Canada’s housing outlook significantly.

“Some building materials could face tariffs, when you think of things like plumbing supplies. But a lot of things can be produced here too or already are produced here,” he said. “The costliest part of building a house is land and labour – less so some of the supplies. So I don’t think it will have too negative an effect on the housing market.”

How is the housing market poised after the BoC’s actions to date?

US president Donald Trump first announced the tariff plans in November, a bolt out of the blue that roiled markets and sent the Canadian dollar plunging.

The reasons Trump has given for those proposed measures have varied. Initially, he claimed Canada’s border security was too lax, while last week he said Canada and Mexico “have never been good” to the US on trade matters.

His claims have been refuted by observers including former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper, who said he had a “real problem” with some of Trump’s pronouncements on Canada.

Those threats have been mentioned in each of the Bank of Canada’s last two interest rate announcements, a 50-basis-point cut in December and a quarter-point snip last week.

The Bank’s statement after reaching its decision on Wednesday noted the resilience of the Canadian economy could come under strain with the imposition of “broad-based and significant” US tariffs.

That rate reduction alone will do little to spur activity in Canada’s housing market, Porter said, although he sounded a positive overall note on its 2025 prospects despite the prospect of lower immigration this year than first planned.

“We’ve now had two percentage points of total easing by the Bank of Canada [since last June],” he said. “That’s a very aggressive move by the Bank in a short period of time, and a clear positive for the housing market. Heading into this, the housing market looked as if it was getting back on its feet. I wouldn’t say it was strong, but it was relatively well-balanced.

“It has had the very strong population growth support knocked out from underneath it – but I think interest rates are a more important story for the housing market. I’d still be mildly constructive on the housing market this year, even with the threat of a trade war.”